Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  18.4  19.0  26.6  37.7  48.7  48.7  48.7  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  39.0  43.0  35.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 127.0 127.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  94.0 117.0  39.0  17.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  N  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  -7.0 -13.0  -8.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  F  N  F VF  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       17.0%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        6.7%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        6.5%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.5%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        9.4%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL012024 240619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     93.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  18.4  19.0  26.6  37.7  48.7  48.7  48.7  U  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  -7.0 -13.0  -8.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  N  U VU  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%