Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     94.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.5  27.1  29.8  33.8  33.8  33.8  33.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  41.0  31.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0 112.0  50.0  20.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  F  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       12.3%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.0%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        8.4%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL012024 240619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70     94.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.5  27.1  29.8  33.8  33.8  33.8  33.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -8.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  N  U  U VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%