Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.1  28.0  35.4  47.9  47.9  47.9  47.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  34.0  26.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  34.0  54.0  11.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0 -19.0  -8.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N VF  F  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       18.3%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        8.3%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        7.8%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.2%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL012024 240619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    154.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.1  28.0  35.4  47.9  47.9  47.9  47.9  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0 -19.0  -8.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N VU  U  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%