Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  25.1  35.7  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  14.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  17.0   0.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0  -2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.3%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       12.8%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        5.4%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        5.2%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.7%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL012024 240620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  25.1  35.7  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  42.4  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0  -2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%