Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012024 240620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     96.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        4.4%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       16.6%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        7.6%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        7.6%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        7.6%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       10.9%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 AL012024 240620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     96.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%