Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012024 240620 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 98.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 AL012024 240620 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 98.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 -16.0 N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 0.1% 0.3%