Rapid Intensification Guidance AL022024 240710 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.40 86.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 160.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 74.7 82.8 84.6 86.1 83.2 61.8 61.8 61.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 36.3 39.6 30.3 28.7 20.6 18.5 18.5 18.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 36.0 49.0 52.0 11.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 57.0 53.0 45.0 40.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -42.0 -24.0 -34.0 -11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VF VF VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.84 AL022024 240710 06UTC Storm Located at : 40.40 86.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.