Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032024 240701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.3%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 AL032024 240701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  30.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%