Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     47.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  17.1  18.0  18.4  15.1  21.0  18.5  15.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  69.0  63.0  75.0  48.0  60.0  62.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        121.5 123.6 127.9 132.3 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  47.0  47.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0 -22.0 -16.0  -2.0  F  F  N  F  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.0%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       17.7%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h       21.3%       21.3%       21.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%        9.9%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       60.3%       42.2%       51.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL052024 240811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     47.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  17.1  18.0  18.4  15.1  21.0  18.5  15.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0 -22.0 -16.0  -2.0  U  U  N  U  U VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%