Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.8  18.3  12.8  12.7  13.6  13.6  16.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  64.0  75.0  55.0  48.0  72.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        123.6 127.9 132.3 137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  75.0  63.0  67.0  85.0 104.0  79.0  79.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0  -9.0 -12.0 -11.0 -18.0  -6.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       10.2%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.3%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       25.0%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h       34.0%       24.8%       29.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       19.1%       22.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       57.8%       59.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL052024 240812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     49.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  18.8  18.3  12.8  12.7  13.6  13.6  16.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0  -9.0 -12.0 -11.0 -18.0  -6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%