Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.2  11.7   9.2  12.5   9.0  21.5  17.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  69.0  54.0  47.0  53.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.9 134.6 137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  65.0  77.0 100.0 101.0  82.0  73.0  81.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0   5.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       16.5%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.8%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.4%       34.9%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.0%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       29.4%       37.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       28.6%       26.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       61.8%       61.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 AL052024 240812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.2  11.7   9.2  12.5   9.0  21.5  17.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0   5.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%