Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  11.2   8.0  11.1  13.1  14.5  16.3  27.7  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  44.0  40.0  50.0  92.0  74.0  58.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        134.6 137.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  82.0  87.0  94.0  95.0  88.0 105.0  80.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0 -10.0  -6.0   2.0  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       27.1%       17.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       11.5%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%       10.2%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       10.2%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       17.0%       47.5%       32.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.3%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       49.4%       41.1%       45.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       39.0%       31.9%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       66.9%       64.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL052024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  11.2   8.0  11.1  13.1  14.5  16.3  27.7  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0 -10.0  -6.0   2.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%