Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  11.0  12.6  13.3  12.1  20.0  25.9  30.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  54.0  74.0  64.0  67.0  48.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 110.0 109.0 109.0  86.0  97.0  48.0 100.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0  -8.0   2.0  10.0  32.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        8.5%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       37.8%       57.5%       47.6%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       37.4%       29.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%       37.4%       23.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       37.4%       23.5%
 45kt / 36h       42.8%       71.2%       57.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       51.1%       25.5%
 55kt / 48h       50.9%       54.0%       52.4%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       52.4%       38.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       56.1%       59.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 AL052024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  11.0  12.6  13.3  12.1  20.0  25.9  30.3  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0  -8.0   2.0  10.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%