Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.1  18.5  14.4  16.5  17.0  28.1  26.4  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  53.0  79.0  90.0  68.0  53.0  43.0  29.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0 120.0 101.0 125.0  65.0  49.0  74.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0 -15.0 -12.0  -5.0  16.0  32.0  15.0  F  F VF  F  F  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%       10.7%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       48.7%       63.8%       56.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.9%       44.6%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       44.6%       28.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%       44.6%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       43.7%       73.6%       58.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.1%       27.5%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       58.4%       54.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       55.5%       40.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.0%       53.5%       57.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 AL052024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.1  18.5  14.4  16.5  17.0  28.1  26.4  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0 -15.0 -12.0  -5.0  16.0  32.0  15.0  U  U VU  U  U  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%