Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  19.7  13.5  11.2  16.7  17.6  31.3  27.2  F  N  F  F  F  F  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  81.0  77.0  67.0  63.0  41.0  35.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  90.0  88.0  78.0  98.0  99.0  69.0  39.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -12.0 -14.0  -8.0   2.0  16.0  33.0  21.0  F  F VF  F  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.8%       57.0%       44.4%
 30kt / 24h       13.6%       39.3%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       38.2%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       37.4%       20.6%
 45kt / 36h       30.8%       63.9%       47.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       42.0%       21.0%
 55kt / 48h       50.5%       56.3%       53.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       43.3%       34.0%
 65kt / 72h       59.0%       43.8%       51.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL052024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  19.7  13.5  11.2  16.7  17.6  31.3  27.2  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -12.0 -14.0  -8.0   2.0  16.0  33.0  21.0  U  U VU  U  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%