Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240813 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 14.8 12.1 18.1 13.9 24.5 33.4 30.4 N F F F F N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 80.0 72.0 63.0 67.0 52.0 45.0 28.0 20.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 74.0 57.0 56.0 93.0 113.0 116.0 61.0 N N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 61.0 62.0 65.0 60.0 50.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -16.0 -8.0 -1.0 4.0 16.0 26.0 38.0 VF VF F N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.2% 12.6% 9.4% 25kt / 24h 40.9% 65.2% 53.0% 30kt / 24h 20.4% 52.2% 36.3% 35kt / 24h 13.8% 52.2% 33.0% 40kt / 24h 5.4% 49.8% 27.6% 45kt / 36h 33.6% 72.0% 52.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 55.0% 27.5% 55kt / 48h 46.4% 56.3% 51.4% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 44.3% 34.6% 65kt / 72h 50.0% 40.3% 45.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 AL052024 240813 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 62.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 14.8 12.1 18.1 13.9 24.5 33.4 30.4 N U U N U N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 63.0 61.0 62.0 65.0 60.0 50.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -16.0 -8.0 -1.0 4.0 16.0 26.0 38.0 VU VU U N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%