Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240813 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 63.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 15.2 21.0 20.8 22.7 33.7 31.2 29.3 F F N N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 62.0 67.0 63.0 42.0 33.0 23.0 20.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 74.0 62.0 88.0 105.0 123.0 60.0 60.0 N N N F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 69.0 60.0 55.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -7.0 -2.0 1.0 13.0 34.0 26.0 32.0 VF F N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 27.7% 21.0% 24.3% 25kt / 24h 54.3% 64.9% 59.6% 30kt / 24h 41.4% 51.2% 46.3% 35kt / 24h 29.6% 51.2% 40.4% 40kt / 24h 29.6% 51.2% 40.4% 45kt / 36h 44.6% 61.9% 53.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 40.0% 20.0% 55kt / 48h 34.0% 35.0% 34.5% 70kt / 48h 23.9% 20.8% 22.4% 65kt / 72h 29.1% 16.3% 22.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 AL052024 240813 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 63.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 15.2 21.0 20.8 22.7 33.7 31.2 29.3 N U N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 61.0 61.0 65.0 69.0 60.0 55.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -7.0 -2.0 1.0 13.0 34.0 26.0 32.0 VU U N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%