Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     64.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  19.8  18.7  16.1  24.1  26.3  29.8  27.1  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  68.0  60.0  47.0  44.0  30.0  21.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  39.0  58.0  84.0  83.0 104.0  42.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  51.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  14.0  17.0  22.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.4%       30.4%       35.4%
 25kt / 24h       61.8%       73.9%       67.8%
 30kt / 24h       52.3%       66.4%       59.3%
 35kt / 24h       44.2%       66.4%       55.3%
 40kt / 24h       36.4%       66.4%       51.4%
 45kt / 36h       47.7%       66.8%       57.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.3%       24.1%
 55kt / 48h       35.4%       43.3%       39.4%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       24.4%       23.3%
 65kt / 72h       26.6%       18.7%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 AL052024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     64.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  19.8  18.7  16.1  24.1  26.3  29.8  27.1  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  51.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  14.0  17.0  22.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%