Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240814 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 20.8 17.2 19.9 22.8 31.3 32.6 28.0 N N F N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 59.0 48.0 40.0 40.0 27.0 21.0 18.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 99.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 58.0 115.0 113.0 89.0 70.0 49.0 -24.0 N N F F F N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 54.0 47.0 43.0 N N U N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 9.0 6.0 14.0 22.0 32.0 23.0 19.0 N U N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 28.3% 23.0% 25.6% 25kt / 24h 57.5% 67.5% 62.5% 30kt / 24h 42.5% 60.5% 51.5% 35kt / 24h 35.0% 60.5% 47.7% 40kt / 24h 27.8% 59.3% 43.5% 45kt / 36h 41.7% 51.7% 46.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 30.4% 15.2% 55kt / 48h 27.3% 32.6% 29.9% 70kt / 48h 11.7% 10.5% 11.1% 65kt / 72h 16.3% 6.8% 11.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.72 AL052024 240814 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 20.8 17.2 19.9 22.8 31.3 32.6 28.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 54.0 47.0 43.0 N N F N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 9.0 6.0 14.0 22.0 32.0 23.0 19.0 N F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%