Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240814 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.1 20.9 21.2 25.1 24.9 43.0 33.4 26.6 N N N N N VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 45.0 42.0 41.0 32.0 20.0 19.0 27.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 97.3 86.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 104.0 123.0 107.0 117.0 62.0 33.0 -6.0 F F F F F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 60.0 49.0 42.0 44.0 N U N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 17.0 21.0 20.0 23.0 41.0 24.0 15.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.7% 7.8% 10.2% 25kt / 24h 32.1% 37.4% 34.7% 30kt / 24h 20.1% 24.0% 22.1% 35kt / 24h 16.9% 24.0% 20.4% 40kt / 24h 16.9% 24.0% 20.4% 45kt / 36h 27.2% 19.8% 23.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.4% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 9.9% 9.8% 9.9% 70kt / 48h 4.6% 1.5% 3.0% 65kt / 72h 10.5% 1.6% 6.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.80 AL052024 240814 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.1 20.9 21.2 25.1 24.9 43.0 33.4 26.6 N N N N N VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 60.0 49.0 42.0 44.0 N F N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 17.0 21.0 20.0 23.0 41.0 24.0 15.0 VF F VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%