Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240814 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 20.1 24.2 24.2 36.8 37.5 35.0 29.1 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 41.0 43.0 36.0 24.0 20.0 20.0 28.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.3 87.9 81.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 117.0 156.0 102.0 101.0 25.0 61.0 49.0 44.0 F VF F F U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 61.0 62.0 52.0 46.0 43.0 50.0 U U N N U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 18.0 21.0 29.0 28.0 25.0 27.0 20.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.9% 10.4% 13.2% 25kt / 24h 39.7% 41.7% 40.7% 30kt / 24h 25.4% 30.0% 27.7% 35kt / 24h 22.4% 30.0% 26.2% 40kt / 24h 22.4% 30.0% 26.2% 45kt / 36h 22.7% 14.7% 18.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.5% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 5.3% 7.2% 6.2% 70kt / 48h 2.1% 0.8% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 7.0% 0.9% 3.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 AL052024 240814 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 20.1 24.2 24.2 36.8 37.5 35.0 29.1 N N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 61.0 62.0 52.0 46.0 43.0 50.0 F F N N F VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 18.0 21.0 29.0 28.0 25.0 27.0 20.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.9% 0.2% 0.5%