Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  23.0  25.8  25.5  42.8  38.3  30.0  26.4  N  N  N  N VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  41.0  35.0  32.0  21.0  19.0  26.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  92.0  78.6  72.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   153.0 126.0  94.0 124.0  68.0  38.0  41.0  47.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  58.0  49.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  24.0  28.0  25.0  30.0  29.0  33.0   8.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.5%       16.9%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       53.7%       54.2%       54.0%
 30kt / 24h       34.4%       47.0%       40.7%
 35kt / 24h       28.5%       47.0%       37.7%
 40kt / 24h       28.5%       45.7%       37.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       15.8%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        8.3%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        0.9%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL052024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  23.0  25.8  25.5  42.8  38.3  30.0  26.4  N  N  N  N VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  64.0  58.0  49.0  42.0  45.0  47.0  F  N  N  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  24.0  28.0  25.0  30.0  29.0  33.0   8.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.9%        0.4%        2.2%