Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240815 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 69.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 23.3 24.2 33.7 34.5 32.1 24.1 23.6 N N N U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 36.0 32.0 26.0 21.0 20.0 28.0 18.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 80.1 73.6 63.5 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 89.0 119.0 89.0 39.0 33.0 70.0 32.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 58.0 51.0 46.0 43.0 46.0 47.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 28.0 23.0 30.0 34.0 28.0 18.0 7.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 52.6% 26.2% 39.4% 25kt / 24h 59.8% 57.7% 58.7% 30kt / 24h 46.7% 52.1% 49.4% 35kt / 24h 41.4% 52.1% 46.7% 40kt / 24h 41.4% 51.6% 46.5% 45kt / 36h 27.2% 16.6% 21.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.7% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 4.2% 7.9% 6.1% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 1.0% 2.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 AL052024 240815 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 69.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 23.3 24.2 33.7 34.5 32.1 24.1 23.6 N N N F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 58.0 51.0 46.0 43.0 46.0 47.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 28.0 23.0 30.0 34.0 28.0 18.0 7.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.9% 0.6% 4.2%