Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240815 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 69.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 21.3 32.6 40.1 35.5 24.3 17.8 18.2 N N U U U N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 33.0 25.0 22.0 20.0 27.0 22.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 92.0 78.6 72.4 64.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 106.0 147.0 71.0 45.0 60.0 1.0 27.0 24.0 F VF N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 55.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 46.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 24.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 24.0 15.0 5.0 8.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.3% 11.7% 13.0% 25kt / 24h 26.3% 30.9% 28.6% 30kt / 24h 15.3% 22.5% 18.9% 35kt / 24h 11.9% 22.5% 17.2% 40kt / 24h 7.4% 21.7% 14.6% 45kt / 36h 9.6% 7.0% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 4.4% 3.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 4.2% 0.8% 2.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 AL052024 240815 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.50 69.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 21.3 32.6 40.1 35.5 24.3 17.8 18.2 N N F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 55.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 46.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 24.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 24.0 15.0 5.0 8.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 0.9% 5.0%