Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  36.3  40.7  32.7  33.7  20.5  18.2  19.8  N  U VU  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  25.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  29.0  21.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  80.1  73.6  63.5  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0  86.0  31.0  44.0  22.0  57.0  -6.0  53.0 VF  F  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  46.0  46.0  54.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  28.0  24.0  29.0  28.0  12.0   4.0  13.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        7.8%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.1%       22.2%       21.1%
 30kt / 24h       12.7%       15.6%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       15.6%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       15.1%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%        3.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        0.5%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 AL052024 240815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     69.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  36.3  40.7  32.7  33.7  20.5  18.2  19.8  N  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  46.0  46.0  54.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  28.0  24.0  29.0  28.0  12.0   4.0  13.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       27.5%        2.3%       14.9%