Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  42.2  34.8  34.4  29.6  20.5  14.1  22.1  U VU  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  29.0  20.0  26.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  74.6  63.6  59.4  49.8  44.4  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  19.0  32.0  34.0   3.0  62.0  38.0  53.0  F  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  45.0  44.0  54.0  56.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  34.0  32.0  20.0  23.0  11.0  12.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.4%        7.2%       13.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       16.8%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       11.0%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.3%       11.0%       13.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       10.7%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%        4.3%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL052024 240816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  42.2  34.8  34.4  29.6  20.5  14.1  22.1  F VF  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  45.0  44.0  54.0  56.0  F  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  34.0  32.0  20.0  23.0  11.0  12.0  28.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       40.7%        5.0%       22.8%