Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     67.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  36.1  39.9  38.0  26.4  18.4  20.5  27.1 VU  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  20.0  22.0  29.0  20.0  30.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  74.6  70.1  63.6  53.5  48.0  37.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  52.0  17.0  15.0  52.0  31.0  52.0  28.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  45.0  52.0  55.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  39.0  29.0  33.0  14.0  10.0  12.0  29.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        2.6%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        5.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        2.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        2.6%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        2.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        1.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL052024 240816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     67.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.7  36.1  39.9  38.0  26.4  18.4  20.5  27.1 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  45.0  52.0  55.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  39.0  29.0  33.0  14.0  10.0  12.0  29.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.7%       13.1%       56.4%