Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  39.5  37.4  29.6  22.2  18.4  24.7  31.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  21.0  26.0  30.0  20.0  25.0  28.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.0  70.1  70.1  63.6  59.4  49.8  44.4   3.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  46.0  24.0  29.0  31.0  15.0  21.0  56.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  49.0  53.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  26.0  28.0  16.0   8.0   6.0  16.0  27.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        0.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 AL052024 240816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90     66.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  39.5  37.4  29.6  22.2  18.4  24.7  31.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  43.0  45.0  44.0  49.0  53.0  58.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.0  26.0  28.0  16.0   8.0   6.0  16.0  27.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.7%       14.0%       56.8%