Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  40.1  25.9  22.1  18.1  20.9  26.9  37.3 VU  U  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  30.0  27.0  20.0  30.0  18.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.6  70.1  63.6  59.4  53.5  48.0  37.7 -23.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  14.0  15.0  61.0  14.0  29.0  46.0  52.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  51.0  57.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  28.0  12.0  11.0   4.0  10.0  26.0  36.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        0.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        1.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 AL052024 240816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00     66.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  40.1  25.9  22.1  18.1  20.9  26.9  37.3 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  51.0  57.0  60.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  28.0  12.0  11.0   4.0  10.0  26.0  36.0 VF VF  F  F  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       45.5%        9.1%       27.3%