Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  20.9  15.8  15.6  16.5  25.9  33.3  40.5  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  24.0  20.0  22.0  26.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  64.4  64.4  58.5  51.2  42.7 -18.2 -34.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  37.0  33.0  14.0  26.0  50.0  29.0  64.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  47.0  54.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0   7.0   3.0  10.0  34.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL052024 240817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  20.9  15.8  15.6  16.5  25.9  33.3  40.5  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  44.0  47.0  54.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0   7.0   3.0  10.0  34.0  39.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%