Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.60     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  16.8  17.2  16.9  23.3  28.2  37.1  44.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  23.0  24.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  69.4  63.5  59.8  54.4  13.7 -24.4 -31.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  37.0 -14.0   5.0  29.0  37.0  41.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  51.0  57.0  63.0  63.0  68.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  11.0   5.0   3.0  21.0  21.0  58.0  33.0  U  U  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 AL052024 240817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.60     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.