Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240818 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 63.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.4 19.6 24.3 30.8 37.6 42.4 49.3 F F N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 26.0 23.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.5 74.8 71.2 69.4 30.7 -5.7 -15.9 -12.7 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 20.0 7.0 27.0 66.0 40.0 39.0 36.0 VU U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 52.0 54.0 57.0 62.0 62.0 66.0 63.0 VU U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 6.0 12.0 22.0 24.0 46.0 36.0 46.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.04 AL052024 240818 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 63.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.