Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  17.5  21.5  26.9  33.8  39.1  47.3  48.0  F  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  23.0  24.0  22.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.8  71.2  69.4  62.7  16.2 -13.5  -9.4 -13.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  18.0  32.0  44.0  79.0  55.0  37.0  21.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  10.0  22.0  22.0  35.0  20.0  46.0  32.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 AL052024 240818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     63.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.