Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     62.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  24.5  27.4  30.6  38.2  42.4  45.5  46.2  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  31.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.2  69.4  62.7  30.7  -5.7 -16.5 -12.7 -13.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  40.0  44.0  56.0  58.0  34.0  26.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  20.0  22.0  22.0  47.0  22.0  23.0  13.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.12

 AL052024 240818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40     62.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.