Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240818 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 62.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 27.0 28.2 34.5 38.1 45.7 42.3 40.5 N N N U U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.4 57.7 44.4 9.7 -18.5 -15.8 -18.3 -16.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 44.0 54.0 33.0 42.0 28.0 36.0 24.0 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 57.0 59.0 59.0 64.0 69.0 62.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 16.0 18.0 42.0 14.0 36.0 12.0 -4.0 U U VU VU U VU U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.7% 1.6% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.42 AL052024 240818 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 62.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.