Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.70     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  27.9  32.3  36.5  42.3  46.9  39.7  39.7  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.1  38.0   5.4 -15.4 -25.9 -22.7 -22.7 -22.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  60.0  48.0  55.0  47.0  78.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  69.0  63.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  11.0  35.0  47.0  22.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        1.1%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.58

 AL052024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.70     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.