Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  33.1  35.9  40.8  44.1  44.5  47.7  47.7  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.0  -0.9 -20.4 -28.5 -24.4 -28.0 -26.9 -26.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  44.0  67.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  38.0  57.0  23.0  30.0 -18.0   8.0   8.0  U VU VU VU VU VF  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        0.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.02

 AL052024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.