Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240819 12UTC Storm Located at : 40.90 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.8 35.7 39.5 41.8 49.4 48.9 50.1 50.1 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -5.9 -25.4 -33.5 -35.9 -30.3 -31.9 -32.3 -32.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 49.0 45.0 29.0 63.0 46.0 -13.0 -13.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 65.0 66.0 66.0 58.0 61.0 61.0 U N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 34.0 57.0 29.0 23.0 7.0 25.0 -22.0 -22.0 VU VU VU VU N VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.24 AL052024 240819 12UTC Storm Located at : 40.90 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.