Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240819 18UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 57.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 39.5 39.8 42.8 46.0 53.2 53.2 53.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -25.4 -32.8 -35.9 -30.8 -33.3 -31.9 -31.9 -31.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 44.0 44.0 50.0 59.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 67.0 68.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 36.0 5.0 9.0 0.0 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 VU VU N U N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 16.38 AL052024 240819 18UTC Storm Located at : 42.90 57.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.