Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240820 06UTC Storm Located at : 46.60 51.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.1 43.4 46.9 47.4 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -21.5 -15.8 -17.7 -18.0 -17.7 -17.7 -17.7 -17.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 66.0 71.0 44.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 67.0 62.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -9.0 -13.0 -51.0 -58.0 -58.0 -58.0 -58.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 14.14 AL052024 240820 06UTC Storm Located at : 46.60 51.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.