Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052024 240820 12UTC Storm Located at : 48.30 47.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.9 49.5 50.0 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] -10.8 -14.5 -14.4 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 -13.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 73.0 21.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 60.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -28.0 -42.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 -86.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 13.64 AL052024 240820 12UTC Storm Located at : 48.30 47.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.