Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     29.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.1  14.0  15.5  21.5  19.0  18.1  19.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0  15.0  11.0  10.0  23.0  34.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        101.2 101.2  97.7  97.7  97.7 101.2 104.8 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  38.0  63.0  58.0  68.0  49.0  57.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  60.0  52.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0 VF  F  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.5%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.3%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        8.2%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        4.5%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%        9.8%        9.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 AL072024 240911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     29.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.