Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     30.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  13.5  12.6  17.5  17.3  13.6  12.6  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  15.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  28.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2  96.0  97.7  94.3  97.7  99.4 104.8 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  72.0  66.0  89.0  48.0  62.0  16.0  61.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        7.7%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        3.4%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%        9.2%        9.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.62

 AL072024 240912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     30.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.