Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072024 240912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     32.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  19.1  20.9  23.5  16.9  17.9  19.7  22.2  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0   9.0   9.0  15.0  20.0  27.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  97.7  94.3  97.7  99.4 101.2 106.6 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  36.0  51.0  37.0  81.0  73.0  25.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.9%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        4.7%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        1.3%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        3.3%        3.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.52

 AL072024 240912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     32.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.