Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240912 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 33.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 18.1 24.2 22.1 22.8 20.3 19.1 17.7 F F N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 21.0 30.0 37.0 47.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 97.7 96.0 97.7 97.7 101.2 106.6 108.5 108.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 51.0 46.0 61.0 94.0 55.0 21.0 1.0 U N N N F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 68.0 65.0 64.0 57.0 57.0 55.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.6% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 70kt / 48h 4.1% 1.1% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 5.3% 3.7% 4.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.56 AL072024 240912 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 33.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.