Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240912 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 35.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 24.1 20.5 19.7 20.9 20.3 21.2 17.5 F N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 10.0 14.0 16.0 26.0 36.0 46.0 42.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 96.0 97.7 97.7 99.4 104.8 108.5 108.5 112.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 31.0 35.0 57.0 56.0 29.0 -12.0 -34.0 N N N N N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.5% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 1.0% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 3.3% 3.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.56 AL072024 240912 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 35.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.