Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240913 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 36.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 20.1 18.2 22.2 24.8 22.2 18.6 13.1 N N F N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 14.0 17.0 22.0 32.0 43.0 50.0 39.0 U U U U U N N U Potential [kt] 99.4 99.4 101.2 103.0 106.6 108.5 112.4 116.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 24.0 47.0 68.0 38.0 23.0 -16.0 -2.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 65.0 63.0 62.0 56.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -1.0 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.9% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 70kt / 48h 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 5.7% 3.4% 4.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 AL072024 240913 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 36.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.