Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240913 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 37.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 19.5 23.1 25.7 23.9 22.4 16.2 12.8 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 18.0 26.0 31.0 40.0 52.0 42.0 28.0 U U U U N N N U Potential [kt] 101.2 101.2 103.0 104.8 108.5 112.4 114.4 118.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 29.0 62.0 27.0 26.0 29.0 16.0 6.0 U N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 63.0 61.0 57.0 57.0 52.0 53.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -6.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.7% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 6.0% 4.5% 5.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 AL072024 240913 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 37.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.