Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240913 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 26.9 24.1 21.4 23.7 16.4 14.0 13.1 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 21.0 27.0 33.0 46.0 51.0 41.0 34.0 U U U U N N N U Potential [kt] 96.2 98.0 99.8 101.6 105.5 107.4 111.5 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 23.0 -2.0 36.0 -9.0 -4.0 4.0 2.0 N U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 56.0 55.0 57.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.1% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 1.3% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 4.9% 5.5% 5.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 AL072024 240913 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 39.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.