Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072024 240914 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 40.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.6 28.6 25.1 24.3 20.8 17.6 12.5 16.0 U N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 27.0 33.0 41.0 51.0 49.0 41.0 25.0 U U U N N N N U Potential [kt] 98.0 99.8 101.6 103.5 105.5 107.4 111.5 113.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 14.0 11.0 -20.0 -17.0 8.0 -9.0 43.0 U U U VU U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 58.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -5.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 5.0% 3.4% 4.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 AL072024 240914 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 40.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.